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J.P. Morgan changes course: From underweight to neutral
On June 5, 2026, J.P. Morgan upgraded Tesla stock from an "underweight" rating to "neutral" and raised its price target from $145 to $475 — an increase of 228%. This was reported by Reuters. The reason? Robotics and autonomous driving.
According to analyst Rajat Gupta, it's no longer just about electric vehicle sales. J.P. Morgan estimates that Tesla's earnings per share (EPS) could rise from approximately $1.95 in 2026 to $7.50 by 2030. Revenue is expected to grow from $95 billion (2025) to $203 billion by the end of the decade — and nearly half of that growth is expected to come from autonomous driving, robotics, and related services.
The market reacted cautiously to the upgrade. Tesla shares fell 6.56% to $391.00 on June 5, primarily due to a broader tech sell-off — the Nasdaq lost 4.18% that day. Nevertheless, TSLA is up approximately 23% since the beginning of April.
Optimus: The robot that's supposed to change everything
The humanoid robot Optimus (also known as Tesla Bot) was first introduced by Elon Musk in 2021. Back then, it was more of a concept — a mockup stood on stage. Today, the situation is different: Tesla is installing its first production lines in Fremont with a capacity of 1 million robots per year, and at Gigafactory Texas it is preparing a second line for 10 million units per year starting in 2027. This is according to the Q1 2026 earnings report.
Optimus is expected to be 173 cm tall, weigh 57 kg, and carry up to 20 kg. Its third-generation hands feature 22 degrees of freedom, which is essential for fine manipulation. The robot is powered by the same AI system Tesla is developing for autonomous vehicle driving (Full Self-Driving, FSD). In April 2026, Musk confirmed that the new AI5 chip will also be used in Optimus to give it sufficient local intelligence even without an internet connection. For more complex conversation, however, it will rely on connecting to the Grok model from xAI.
The estimated price of Optimus is around $30,000 (approximately 700,000 CZK), roughly the price of a small car. For comparison: the competing humanoid Figure 02 from Figure AI, which collaborates with OpenAI, is targeting a similar price level but is at an earlier stage of development. China's AgiBot, whose humanoids are already being tested by companies in Europe, advertises lower prices, but the question remains whether it can compete with the integration of Tesla's AI ecosystem.
Robotaxi: Another pillar of the valuation
In addition to Optimus, Tesla is betting on an autonomous taxi service — Cybercab. The vehicle without a steering wheel or pedals was unveiled in October 2024 at the "We, Robot" event. Tesla plans to launch commercial robotaxi operations in 2026, although an exact date has not yet been specified. J.P. Morgan expects that it is precisely autonomous services — including robotaxis, infrastructure licensing, and humanoid robotics — that will address a market worth $3.9 trillion by 2035.
What analysts are saying and what the risks are
According to Zacks Investment Research, Tesla has an average recommendation of 2.49 (on a scale of 1–5, where 1 is Strong Buy). Out of 43 analysts, 16 recommend "Strong Buy," 2 "Buy," 11 "Hold," and 6 "Strong Sell." The average price target from 35 analysts is $401.77, with estimates ranging from $123 to $600. As of June 5, 2026, the stock was at $391.00.
The bank also warns: investing in Tesla is not without risk. Key hurdles include obtaining regulatory approvals for autonomous vehicles, safety concerns, and the ability to scale new technologies. For humanoid robotics in Europe, the EU AI Act also plays a role — from August 2026, it introduces stricter rules for high-risk AI systems, and autonomous robots operating in public spaces will almost certainly fall into this category.
Czech and European context
Why should Czech readers care? Tesla has a strong position in Europe — Gigafactory Berlin-Brandenburg produces the Model Y for the entire continent, including the Czech Republic. If Optimus begins mass production, it is likely that European demand for industrial robots will be strong. The Czech Republic, with a high share of manufacturing industry (automotive, engineering), could be one of the first markets where humanoid robots find application.
Moreover, Czech companies are increasingly experimenting with AI in automation — from Ecomail connecting email marketing with ChatGPT and Claude, to the Czech National Bank using Nvidia chips for banking sector oversight. The arrival of affordable humanoid robots could transform the look of Czech warehouses and production halls within five years.
How to invest in Tesla via ETFs
For investors who don't want to bet directly on Tesla stock, there are ETFs with high exposure to TSLA. According to Zacks, these include:
- Simplify Volt TSLA Revolution ETF (TESL) — 50.29% exposure to Tesla
- Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY) — 19.87%
- Global X PureCap MSCI Consumer Discretionary ETF (GXPD) — 19.2%
- Fidelity MSCI Consumer Discretionary Index ETF (FDIS) — 17.64%
- Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF (VCR) — 15.79%
The TESL ETF is specifically focused on Tesla and is worth attention especially for those who believe in the company's robotic-AI transformation. All of these ETFs are tradeable on European exchanges as well, albeit with lower liquidity.
The bigger picture: AI and the physical world
Tesla is not alone in betting on connecting AI with the physical world. In May 2026, OpenAI announced its return to robotics and introduced its own division for embodied AI. Meta acquired the startup Assured Robot Intelligence and is planning its own humanoids. China's AgiBot has launched robot rentals across 14 countries. The physical AI market is expected to reach a value of $15 trillion by 2032, with an annual growth rate of 47%.
The key question is: who will be first to deliver a humanoid robot that is truly useful — not just on stage, but in a factory, warehouse, or home. Tesla has a head start in mass production and vertical integration (its own AI, its own chips, its own factories). On the other hand, competitors like Figure AI backed by OpenAI or AgiBot with aggressive Chinese pricing policy will not be waiting.
When will it actually be possible to buy Optimus?
Tesla has not yet announced an exact date for public sale. Production lines in Fremont are being installed during 2026, and mass production is expected to begin in 2027. Elon Musk estimates a final price around $30,000, but the first models will likely go to Tesla's own factories and partner companies, not to individual customers.
Will Optimus truly replace human workers?
In the short term (up to 5 years), it's more about supplementing human labor rather than replacing it. Optimus is intended to target "dangerous, repetitive, and boring" tasks — typically material handling in warehouses and production halls. Massive replacement of the human workforce is more a question for the next decade.
How does Tesla's robotics approach differ from Boston Dynamics or Figure AI?
Boston Dynamics focuses on specialized robots with exceptional mobility (Atlas, Spot), but is not targeting the mass market. Figure AI is betting on a partnership with OpenAI and a general-purpose humanoid for logistics. Tesla leverages the advantage of vertical integration — its own AI chips, neural networks from FSD, massive production capacity, and the ability to deploy robots first in its own factories. This theoretically gives it a head start in scaling speed.
